Disturbance Three headed for the Windward Islands

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands at about 8 knots and has been designated disturbance three, currently showing no signs of organisation. This is encountering upper level shear coming off the north coast of south America, typical of a developing El Nino and likely to be a feature of this season. The system is expected to bring squalls to the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Once the disturbance moves into the western Caribbean, squalls are likely to increase as it interacts with a broad area of low pressure. Some models are indicating development in the north-west Caribbean, extreme eastern Gulf or in the Bahamas. If development were to occur, it would most likely occur in the Bahamas but not for several days.

Disturbance two is centred some 500 miles west of Florida and headed west at little more than walking pace. There are no signs of organisation, indeed this continues to weaken and is likely to disappear over the next day or so.

Stand easy 

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