Two disturbances battling upper level shear
General overview Friday 29th May 2015
A wide sweep of upper level wet air is pouring across the entire Caribbean from Panama to Haiti and all points south thereof, effectively scuppering any chance of development in the central or eastern Caribbean for the foreseeable future. Disturbance three seems determined to see this out and is still visible in the far north east Caribbean, where it is causing rain showers and squalls. If this survives, it will move through the Caribbean during the next few days and if it develops at all, is likely to head for the Bahamas as things stand, but conditions aloft are very variable at this time of the season.
Aerial imagery of the windfield of disturbance two, still bravely pushing west towards Florida, is actually displaced some hundred miles east of the centre of rotation indicating strong and debilitating upper level shear coming from an upper level low. There is a little surface circulation but nothing to write home about and I'd expect this to dissipate before reaching the US coast.