A new disturbance in the east

Disturbance twelve crossed the coast of West Africa overnight and is headed for the Cape Verde Islands, then west. This is the beginning of the westerly trek for low pressure waves from around now to the last weeks of the season. There is good warm water for tropical development, but a huge expanse of Saharan air, almost as far as the Amazon, is suffocating any vertical organisation. Disturbance twelve does have some heavy shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it, but anything more deep and meaningful is most unlikely.

Stand easy