Two week disturbances otherwise, blue skies

General overview 7th August 2015

There is some excitement over an occluded front centred across the Great Lakes which is expected to head south and east, bringing the chances of a depression forming off the eastern seaboard. This is pure conjecture, but we will keep an eye on this.

As to the more traditional storm sources, just two unimpressive systems are following the usual trans-Atlantic track across the intertropical convergence zone:

Disturbance twenty one is passing the Lesser Antilles now, still westbound at 8 knots. Environmental conditions are unfavourable for development and chances of this organising are virtually zero. Enhanced showers and storms will have a limited impact on the Lesser Antilles today and tomorrow.

Disturbance twenty three is now two days slow steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving slowly west. Development is unlikely and the storm debate seems to have been forgotten.

It may be a surprise to learn that statistically, this season has been 50% more active than 2014. On this day last year we had just seen the back of BERTHA, which was irritating fish and sailors as it fled east off the coast of Newfoundland, whilst a weak disturbance fourteen was loafing about somewhere south of the Cayman Islands and fading fast.

Blue skies.

Stand easy 

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