Umbrellas in Texas

General overview Monday 17th August 2015

Disturbance twenty seven has opened up into a weak elongated trough more or less running parallel to and approaching the Gulf coast from the Mississippi to Corpus Christi and will move into Texas and Louisiana today. This will cause scattered showers and storms over portions of the northwest Gulf as well as portions of Louisiana and coastal Texas over the next couple days but no significant impacts are expected.

Disturbance twenty six which weakened and slipped off radar yesterday is back and is represented by an upper level low over the Windward Passage today and is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. This seems to be headed along the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba, as will lose energy as a consequence. This is likely to disappear again over the next day or two.

Disturbance twenty nine is centred around 250 mils due north of the Amazon delta as it moves west at 12 knots. This is still ploughing into upper level shear and is not expected to reach the Lesser Antilles.

The wall of upper level shear is showing some cracks and this may be fortuitous for disturbance twenty eight, which is today's weather-watcher's pin-up. Now two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and westbound at 14 knots. This has some surface organisation and some of the more enthusiastic commentators are already producing storm maps. These are haphazard, without consensus and very premature. There is still some dry air ahead and conditions in the Caribbean are changing, but perhaps not quickly enough for this system to develop. Web will wait and see.

Umbrellas in Texas, otherwise stand easy.