Storm FRED set to have no impact on land.....
General overview 1st September 2015
Disturbance thirty six has formed just south of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This is a non-tropical cell of low pressure that may deepen over the next few days as it moves east away from the eastern seaboard, but only set to be a fish storm if it does.
Disturbance thirty three is an open wave of low pressure now, loosely centred to the north of Puerto Rico and shuffling west-nor'west at 9 knots but with neither organisation nor hope. Development is not expected.
FRED has weakened to a tropical storm north of the Cape Verde Islands. Winds are estimated at 60 knots but may be at peak now. Continued weakening is expected over the next few days as the system heads into the open Atlantic Ocean where it will be a nuisance for fish and sailors, but won't see land again.
A shiny new fresh disturbance thirty five is about to launch itself from the coast of Guinea. This already has a posse of squalls circling it and has a decent prospect of development. The launch site is a little south of that of FRED, so may remain on the westbound track. Early days.
We are just ten days short of the calculated mid-season when we pass peak and storm frequency begins to diminish. A very strong El Nino in the Pacific has produced record surface water temperatures, creating a strong belt of upper level shear across the western side of the reporting area. A strong El Nino often causes an early end to the season, and the current storm hostile conditions aloft over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are not showing any signs of weakening in the short to medium term. There is a fascinating mix of strong upper level shear and dry air across the Atlantic basin, the only respite being central and south-central mid-Atlantic at the moment, which all bodes well for our areas of interest. Best not be too complacent just yet though.....
Stand by Atlantic sailors and fish, otherwise stand easy.