Upper level shear and dry air suppressing five systems
General overview Thursday 3rd September 2015
Useless disturbance thirty three dissipated somewhere over the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight. Upper level shear. Done. The last vestige of ERIKA is barely identifiable now as it leaves the coast of Georgia in its wake, bringing rain and gloomy skies to Atlantic sailors. Upper level shear kept this out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance thirty six has weakened to a dying non-tropical low about 200 miles north east of Bermuda moving east at 6 knots. This general motion should continue over the next day or two with a possible turn to the northeast after that. Wherever this goes, it will remain at sea and is unlikely to develop due to upper level shear. Tropical storm FRED is a good 400 miles to the north west of the Cape Verde Islands and is still moving to the west-nor'west at about 6 knots. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at just 35 knots now and FRED should now start to weaken as it crosses dry air then hits a band of strong upper level shear in the north sub-tropical Atlantic.
Disturbance thirty five is a tropical wave over West Africa, waiting for the right moment to leave the coast and spring west - where dry air awaits before a wall of upper level shear.This is moving west at 10 knots and is likely to be seaborne in the next hour or two. This looks keen but will need some balls to cross the Atlantic at the moment.