Upper level wind shear winning on all fronts

General overview Friday 4th September 2015

The last knockings of ERIKA remains very weak mid-way between Florida and Bermuda. Development is not expected. Gradual dissipation is expected over the next couple of days as it drifts east-sou'east.

Disturbance thirty six is merging with a frontal system about a day's sailing north east of Bermuda. No development is expected.

Disturbance thirty five is centred a couple of hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 15 knots. Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is becoming better organised. This is well south of track and is providing wet air and convection for vertical development. Under normal circumstances, this would have the makings of a cracking arrival in the west as a decent tropical depression or tropical storm. Development is highly likely, but a wall of considerable upper level shear awaits. If this does develop, it will either be pushed north into mid-Atlantic anonymity or limp pathetically into the Caribbean unnoticed and dissipate.

FRED has been downgraded to a depression by the National Hurricane Centre. Additional weakening will follow and FRED could become a remnant low tomorrow. Some re-strengthening is possible in a couple of days time but this will only be a fish storm.

Considering we are only a day or so short of nominal mid-season, the language being used between commentators seems to indicate that the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could remain impregnable for the rest of the season. I don't believe long terms forecasts, but this is coming from some highly respected observers.

Stand easy.

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