General overview Monday 7th September 2015
Whilst the Gulf of Mexico is being described by current weather watchers as being ‘impregnable from the west', this does not exclude the possibility of a local development if frontal activity creates a low pressure cell. Such an opening is being discussed now, based on a frontal boundary set to approach the north-west Gulf of Mexico in about a week from now. Early days, but worth watching.
A small local disturbance – thirty seven - has piped up in the shadow of the Lesser Antilles which is moving west at 13 knots but already hitting upper level wind shear. This will weaken as it tracks into the eastern Caribbean, bringing a few scattered showers and storms to the southern Lesser Antilles over the next 24 hours.
Disturbance thirty eight is just about to leave the African coast. As with GRACE, conditions are good for development, but only on the eastern side of the pond.
GRACE is currently centred around 1675 miles east-sou'east of Guadeloupe and headed west at 16 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 40 knots touching 55 in gusts over a windfield radius of 60 miles. GRACE has weakened during the past few hours and is starting to accelerate, which will further degrade the cyclone's formation. A spotter aircraft has reported that squalls near the centre have weakened. Weakening has occurred a little earlier than expected as it encounters hostile conditions. None are wavering from the assertion that this won't make an impact on the Leeward Islands.