Weakening GRACE approaching Caribbean

General overview Tuesday 8th September 2015

Shear-battered disturbance thirty seven crept into the far south east Caribbean overnight, westbound at 12 knots. Development is not expected as it tracks across the southern Caribbean over the next couple of days.

Disturbance thirty six has been added back to the analysis due to an increase in thunderstorms and a risk of development into a tropical system over the next few days. This is now about 100 miles north east of Bermuda. Wind shear is strong over the area but is expected to decrease in the next couple of days. A track to the north is likely if the system develops. It will almost certainly be absorbed by a frontal system southeast of Nova Scotia late in the week, passing near the coast of Newfoundland as an extra-tropical cyclone by the weekend.

GRACE looks very poor on satellite imagery, and it should weaken to a tropical depression later today and a remnant low in 36 hours. Currently 1270 miles east of Guadeloupe and westbound at 18 knots, maximum winds are 35 knots gusting 45 over a radius of 45 miles. The remnants may enhance rainfall slightly across the Leeward Islands Thursday night into Friday. However, it is possible that the system could dissipate completely prior to reaching the islands.

Disturbance thirty eight has emerged off the African coast. Most guidance is no longer indicating development but it could strengthen over the next day or two before a weakening trend begins.

Stand easy.