Seven disturbances seaborne but no threat

Disturbance thirty nine has taken shape as a trough of low pressure inland over northeastern Mexico. The trough will drift towards Tampico overnight, after which it will gradually weaken as it turns north on Monday. There is still a chance of a tropical depression forming early next week but this is rapidly becoming less likely. The only sure outcome is for heavy rain and flooding over northeastern Mexico and possibly southeast Texas with heavy thunderstorms over the far western Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance forty is just about ashore now in central America and will be off our radar in a few hours. The last knockings of GRACE are located near Puerto Rico. This is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. Although the system has a decent chance of moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a weak disturbance in 4 to 5 days, there is very little chance of redevelopment into a tropical depression. Heavy rain could produce some minor flooding over Puerto Rico today and Hispaniola tomorrow. What is left of HENRI is a weak extratropical low a couple of hundred miles south east of Newfoundland with maximum winds of 35 knots in squalls about 100 miles to 150 miles east of the centre. It is moving quickly north-east with a turn to the east-nor'east expected tonight. Gusty winds in squalls are likely today for waters to the east of Newfoundland, but is now past peak.

Disturbance thirty eight is centred around 350 miles north of the Amazon delta and moving to the west at 16 knots as it does so. This system is in the thick of upper level shear and no development is expected.

Disturbance forty two is a new low pressure system which has piped up in the central Atlantic, north of the intertropical convergence zone. The disturbance is moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. The disturbance has a slight chance of development over the next couple of days before it merges with a frontal trough and dissipates. No land areas will be effected.

Disturbance forty one is centred about a day's steaming south west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 18 knots. Although the disturbance is very disorganised and contains limited showers and storms at this time, several computer models continue to indicate some gradual development of this system over the next week. Conditions to the west remain hostile and will either stifle development or push it to the north before reaching the Caribbean. Despite all this, there is no significant or viable threat.

Stand easy.

 

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