Fish storms brewing but no threat to land
General overview Wednesday 16th September 2015
Disturbance thirty nine finally ran ashore into central Mexico. Game over.
What is left of GRACE is a tropical wave broadly speaking centred over the Yucatan Channel. This has lost almost all shape and is slowly disappearing into an upper level shear-driven muck and scud belt between the Bay of Campeche and the Carolinas. It is likely to loaf around a day or so longer bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms the eastern Gulf of Mexico before disappearing by the weekend.
Disturbance thirty eight is battling increasing upper level shear close to eastern Hispaniola, and moving slowly west-nor'west. Development is unlikely over the next few days as it moves to the west-nor'west.
Disturbance forty one deepened and has reached tropical disturbance strength and has been designated tropical depression nine. Currently centred about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, this still has capacity to deepen further and may reach storm status, although strong south-westerly wind shear may have the final say. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 knots. This has already started to arc away from the convergence zone track as it moves north-west at 6 knots. This track is expected to continue over the next few days, keeping the depression well to the east of Leeward Islands. Whatever the future holds for tropical depression nine will only be of interest to fish and sailors.
Disturbance forty three is about six hundred miles slightly south of east of tropical depression nine. This is also starting to curve away from the well-worn track as it moves west-nor'west at 12 knots. Conditions are reasonably favourable for this to develop as well, as it moves to the west-nor'west over the eastern Atlantic. This is also destined to remain seaborne.