Skies clearing in the Caribbean

General overview Friday 9th October 2015

Disturbance fifty has made its closest pass to the north-east Caribbean and is now moving to the north west at 10 knots. The system is expected to remain weak as it moves to the northwest and then north over the next few days, weakening as it does so.

In a strong El Nino season, the hurricane season normally ends early and with record high sea temperatures in the central Pacific, this is very likely for 2015. Despite that, there is still talk of a swansong to the season. Few serious forecasters will go further than ten days ahead, but a couple of reliable American agencies have a fairly detailed track of a tropical storm in two weeks time. This kicks off in the far western Caribbean and then tracks across the Florida keys and then heads east as a sizeable storm, perhaps even a hurricane. Highly speculative of course and not based on active observation so a large pinch of salt recommended for now.

Stand easy.