Wild speculation on new system coming in western Caribbean
General overview Saturday 10th October 2015
The list of chatterers joining in with speculation of a disturbance forming in the extreme western Caribbean by mid-week is increasing. I would dearly love to advise all to take this with a large pinch of salt, having a seafarer's natural mistrust of long term forecasts, but in addition to the usual blind snipers, some very reliable observers are among the number now. By next weekend, the system is expected to be located in the northwestern Caribbean and forming a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday 19th October. There is also a chance that it could enter the southern Gulf of Mexico but strong upper-level southwesterly winds would force it to move east towards southern Florida thus there would be little or no threat to the oil producing regions of the north-central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance fifty is now about 250 miles north of Antigua and is moving towards the northeast at 10 knots. This system is expected to dissipate over the next day or two without developing.
Disturbance fifty one has formed around 550 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving slowly west. This is expected to steadily weaken over the next few days and development is not expected.