More speculation surrounds the western Caribbean

General overview Sunday 11th October 2015

A low pressure trough is shaping up to develop over central America by the later half of the coming week. The eastern portion of this trough is likely to extend into the western Caribbean, which may then spark up the hopeful modellers' long-predicted disturbance. Interaction with land is likely to prevent any significant development from occurring, however if it were to develop, it is expected to move very slowly into the northwest Caribbean or over the Yucatan, before moving to the east-nor'east. This track would take the system towards Florida and the Bahamas. There is no threat to the central or northern Gulf of Mexico from this system however it is likely to bring heavy rainfall to central America late this week and early next.

Disturbance fifty one is centred around 500 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon and is moving to the west at 12 knots. There are no signs of organisation nor any chance of development. Disturbance fifty two has formed in the central Atlantic and is moving west at 12 knots.While there is a concentrated area of squalls associated with the disturbance, environmental conditions are not favourable for development.

Stand easy.

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