Speculation over clouds gathering in the far west

General overview Wednesday 14th October 2014

Disturbance fifty three has piped up as a weak tropical wave of thunderstorms in the far western Caribbean. This, and the offshore south eastern seaboard are the two prime development areas at this end of the season and may need watching. Having said that, it is very close to the coast of Nicaragua and may be on the beach this time tomorrow, or loaf around and merge with fifty one.

Disturbance fifty one is a day west of the Windward Islands and has hardly any shower or thunderstorm activity associated with it, so may not have the impact on the anticipated gathering when it reaches the far west. The combined disturbance is likely to produce heavy rain over central America this weekend into early next week. Most of the energy associated with this may eventually move into the East Pacific. However, some enhanced moisture could spread over the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico in 6 to 10 days. There is still an east-west divided opinion over this. The US consensus is still talking up a system developing in the far south of the Bay of Campeche in about 9 days, whilst the Europeans have their hearts set on this jumping the fence in to the Pacific.

Disturbance fifty two is a little to the west if dead central tropical Atlantic and moving west at 12 knots. Development is not expected.

Stand easy.