Wellington boots in Texas and storm cones aloft in western Mexico, otherwise stand easy.

General overview Thursday 22nd October 2015

Some addressees in the far west have e-mailed us and commented on strong winds and squalls overnight in the western Gulf of Mexico and some of the offshore oilfield areas. This is related to a frontal trough and inclement pressure gradient, but is not is not related to tropical development of any kind. This is likely to blow a hoolie for most of the day but then gradually diminish as this area drifts slowly to the northwest.

Hurricane PATRICIA in the east Pacific will make a landfall in Mexico tomorrow night as a category three or four hurricane somewhere west of Guadalajara but is expected to dissipate rapidly over the high terrain of central Mexico over the weekend. This is going to be bad news at landfall. Some residual moisture will reach the Gulf coast early on Sunday morning but without any meaningful formation. This is expected to cause a low pressure cell to develop which will then hover across the coast producing another bout of winds with gusts of up to 45 knots in the offshore lease areas but the maelstrom of upper level winds and jetstream aloft will prevent any kind of tropical development.

Disturbance fifty six has developed mid-way between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda – already well clear of land – and is creeping to the north-nor'east at walking pace. This has found a window of opportunity but will only distance itself further from land. Development is unlikely and in any event, will only pester fish and sailors.

Wellingtons in Texas and storm cones aloft in western Mexico, otherwise stand easy.

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