Curtains for BONNIE

Saturday 4th June 2016

BONNIE had a final fling, touching weak tropical storm strength again overnight a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras. Since then the system has been shrinking, still eastbound and is now devoid of significant thunderstorm activity. The depression is over cold water and in a high wind shear environment making this the final curtain for BONNIE.

Disturbance three is currently centred around 300 miles south-east of Cozumel, Mexico and headed west-nor'west at 12 knots although as I type this, it is starting to turn to a northerly heading which will take it into the Gulf by the morning. Smart money is on disturbance three becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24 hours as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico with winds up up 40 knots in places. The single forecaster (yes, he's back folks) who has this down as a hurricane is apparently oblivious to strong wind shear currently sweeping high altitudes over the Gulf.

By early Tuesday morning, this system will make a landfall on the west coast of Florida, probably to the north of Tampa although the strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur well south and east of the centre. Filthy weather will precede this into Florida on Monday afternoon. Once the system moves across Florida, it should accelerate but might perform once it enters the Atlantic. Weather watch in Florida early next week, otherwise stand easy.