COLIN close to weak landfall in Florida

Monday 6th June 2016

The only show in town is tropical storm COLIN. Currently centred around 140 miles west-nor'west of Tampa and moving east-nor'east at 14 knots, this is expected to make landfall in the northern portion of the Big Bend area in the next three hours. This currently has a fairly low hurricane severity index of just 3 (1 size / 2 intensity) and a predicted maximum of 6 (3 size / 3 intensity) but ignore this for now as this is likely to be when COLIN emerges into the Atlantic. It may then strengthen but current pointers are that this will leave the eastern seaboard in its wake.

For those in the area, it is important not to focus on the centre of COLIN which is uninspiring as storms go since all strong winds and heavy squalls are well-removed to the east and southeast of the centre. This is unlikely to strengthen before landfall now, and once over land, it is expected to turn northeast and move through southern Georgia. By tomorrow morning, COLIN will be seaborne again will move out over the Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds at the moment are only to be found in squalls to the east and southeast of the centre - touching 55 knots in places. Unless there is some serious bad luck, the threat ashore from high winds is fairly low but this will be a very wet 36 hours indeed. Stand by Florida.